2023-24 Premier League season preview, odds, predictions: Fulham struggles

The 2023-24 Premier League season begins Friday, so now is a perfect time to identify a few teams to buy or sell in the early part of the campaign. 

We’ll start at the bottom of the table with a club expected to be in a season-long relegation scrap: 

2023-24 Premier League preview

Buy: Bournemouth  (150/1, BetRivers)

Tipped as the favorite to be relegated last season, Bournemouth stayed up relatively comfortably thanks to a stirring performance down the stretch under manager Gary O’Neill.

Despite that, the club decided to move on from O’Neill and bring in Andoni Iraola from Rayo Vallecano. 

Though it may sound counter-intuitive to sack the manager that kept the relegation favorites in the Premier League, Iraola is one of the sport’s most promising young managers and this indicates that the Cherries are not satisfied with just staying in the top division — they have higher aspirations. 

Despite the positivity surrounding the Cherries this summer, they are still the fourth-favorites to be relegated at most sportsbooks.

That seems like an underestimation of a team that is heading in the right direction and should be able to pull off a couple of big upsets against the Premier League’s big clubs. 

Sell: Fulham (100/1, Bet365)

No team surpassed expectations quite like Fulham last season.

The Cottagers were one of the betting favorites to be relegated but rode a strong start to stability and never were under any real pressure.

Fulham finished in 10th place with 52 points and a plus-two goal difference.

The general consensus around the league is that Fulham can build off that impressive performance and become an ascendant team like Brighton or Brentford. 

But if you look under the hood, you’ll see that a lot of that success is unsustainable.

According to Football Reference, Fulham finished the season with a minus-17.6 expected goal differential and conceded 64 expected goals, which is 11 goals higher than its actual 53 goals allowed in 2022-23. 

Fulham did not do much to improve its defense over the summer, and the club’s leading goal scorer, Aleksandar Mitrovic is looking to move on from the club after scoring 14 times in 24 matches last campaign.

Without Mitrovic bagging goals, Fulham’s margin for error basically evaporates.

There’s no established goal scorer on this roster who can provide the output needed to outscore the Cottagers’ defensive deficiencies. 

The market may show some confidence in Fulham after a terrific 2022-23 season, but the Cottagers’ statistical profile makes them a great fade candidate against other relegation contenders. 

Buy: Tottenham Hotspur (40/1, BetMGM)

We’ll now shift our focus to the top of the table and Tottenham Hotspur, which is coming off a disappointing eighth-place finish in 2022-23.

It was the second time in the past three seasons that Spurs finished outside the top six in the Premier League. 

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A team with enough star power to contend for a spot in the top four and perhaps beyond, there’s been a negative aura around Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for quite a while due to their managers.

None of Jose Mourinho, Nuno Espirito Santo, nor Antonio Conte were good fits for a club with this much attacking talent, and it became clear the Spurs were crying out for a more positive, progressive manager to get them back in the mix with the elite clubs in the league. 

The appointment of Ange Postecoglou certainly ticks those boxes, and though it comes with some risk — this is his first time managing one of Europe’s big five leagues — the upside is quite high. 

There’s still plenty of skepticism surrounding Spurs going into 2023-24, but that could be good news for shrewd bettors looking to buy low on a team that could be undervalued in matches against title contenders like Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United.