Women’s World Cup odds, picks

The United States Women’s National Team is into the Round of 16 at the 2023 World Cup, but they did not look convincing at all during the group stage.

The tournament favorites took care of Vietnam, 3-0, in their opening match but followed that performance up with back-to-back draws against the Netherlands and Portugal to finish as runners up. 

As disappointing as their first three matches have been, nobody will remember a middling performance in the round robin if the USWNT makes a run deep into the tournament and perhaps complete the three-peat.

The first step towards that goal is defeating Sweden on Sunday morning (5 a.m. ET). 

United States vs. Sweden pick

Placed in a pretty straightforward group, the USWNT was expected to roll through the group stage.

The Netherlands represented a potential banana skin in the middle match of the three-game round robin, but the Stars & Stripes were not expected to have any issues with Vietnam or Portugal.

While they were able to breeze past Vietnam, they didn’t blow them out as expected (the spread was bouncing between 5.5 and 6 but the USWNT never came close to covering that number) and never clicked into gear against the Netherlands or Portugal. 

Finishing second behind the Netherlands would end up costing the USWNT dearly as the Dutch are set to take on South Africa in the Round of 16, while the Yanks have a date with Sweden, who are ranked as the No. 3 team in the world according to FIFA. 

The Swedes hardly put a foot wrong in the group stage going 3-0-0 with a +8 goal difference (9 GF, 1 GA) and a +5.3 expected goal differential, but they’ll still go off as considerable underdogs despite what we saw out of the USWNT in the round robin.

At the time of writing Sweden is +140 to advance and +260 to win the match in 90 minutes.

Meanwhile the Americans are -175 favorites to advance and are +105 to win in regulation.

This marks the first time the USWNT has been offered at plus-money on the three-way moneyline in this tournament.

If you’re looking at this match solely from a value perspective, there’s little question that Sweden is the right side.

Oddsmakers weren’t born yesterday and know that they can pretty much hang any price on Team USA and balance their sheet.

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That means you’re always going to pay a tax on the USWNT in the betting market.

The United States are considered the best team in the world, but Sweden is not far behind the Yanks in terms of talent and has been the better team Down Under.

Betting against the USWNT may not be fun, but it’s the right thing to do if you’re looking for value on Sunday.