Argentina vs. Poland prediction: World Cup picks Wednesday

It’s hard to believe, but Lionel Messi’s World Cup (and international soccer) career could come to an end on Wednesday against Poland. 

Messi’s Argentina are heavy favorites to win against the Eagles. Still, if they lose, the Albicelestes will be out of the tournament even though they were the second-favorites behind Brazil before it started. According to John Ewing of BetMGM, Argentina was the most-bet team to hoist the trophy, both by ticket count and dollars wagered. Sportsbooks will be big Poland fans on Wednesday afternoon. 

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Argentina vs. Poland prediction

Even though Argentina still control their own destiny, it’s hard to argue that they’ve been anything short of a disappointment through their first two matches in Qatar. They were upset by 22/1 underdogs in Saudi Arabia in their opener. Then they created very little sustained pressure against Mexico, even though that match ended 2-0 in favor of the South Americans. 

Coming into the tournament, there were very few questions about Argentina’s offense, but the skeptics were concerned about their defense. The prevailing thought was that a team with this much creative talent could mask those defensive deficiencies to make a run.

Thus far, that has not been the case.

After creating 2.2 expected goals against Saudi Arabia, Argentina scored twice on just 0.3 xG against El Tri. Messi is a legend and can win you games on his own like that from time to time, but it’s not a sustainable way to get wins against better competition.

Betting on the World Cup?

Poland is far from an elite team, but the Eagles will set up in a very deep, compact formation and look to counter against an Argentina attack that has not looked sure of itself on the ball. 

That should lead to a pretty slow-moving slog of a game as Argentina looks to find an opening, and Poland absorbs pressure and does everything it can to keep Messi out of the danger areas. Poland only needs a draw to get through to the Round of 16. 

When betting on the draw in soccer, you want to target games that could turn into snoozefest, and this one, even though it features two of the best attacking players in the world, ticks that box. Neither team should be able to run away with this one, and that should keep the draw in play at a good number. 

Argentina vs. Poland pick

Draw +320 (FanDuel)