Women’s World Cup odds, picks

Let’s take a trip back to Nov. 22, 2022.

The sporting world was buzzing as Lionel Messi and Argentina were about to play their first match at the 2022 World Cup, which was expected to be the last of Messi’s sport-changing career.

La Albiceleste were massive favorites against Saudi Arabia that evening in Qatar and were expected to breeze through a group that also featured Poland and Mexico.

All seemed right in the world when Messi slotted home a penalty kick in the 10th minute to put Argentina in front.

France vs. Brazil pick

(6 a.m. ET)

But then things got funky. Saudi Arabia grew into the match thanks to a tactical adjustment from manager Herve Renard.

A wondergoal from Salem Al Dawsari in the 53rd-minute put the Green Falcons ahead for good.

The world was stunned as Messi slouched off the pitch and got ready to face scrutiny from an entire planet eager to write his team off.

Not so fast.

Messi and Argentina would go on to win their next two group-stage matches before beating Australia, the Netherlands, Croatia and France en route to their World Cup triumph.

The image of Messi on the stage lifting the trophy is now etched into soccer folklore.

The 1,000-yard stare he wore after their loss to Saudi Arabia four weeks prior was essentially erased from the record books.

The point of all of this is that, while we love to make sweeping generalizations after one match in international soccer tournaments, a poor showing in the curtain-raiser is not a death sentence — particularly for elite teams.

The first round of matches at the 2023 Women’s World Cup was short on upsets on the same level as Saudi Arabia’s victory over Argentina, but there was one team that came up well short of expectations in its tournament debut.

France, which is managed by Renard, was supposed to breeze past Jamaica on Sunday morning.

Instead it was the Reggae Girlz who earned a famous nil-nil draw against Les Bleues, who were a -1400 favorite on the three-way moneyline before the game.

The draw against Jamaica was a jolt to France — which was already a team in some turmoil after Renard’s predecessor, Corinne Diacre, was sacked because she fell out with her playing group — but it should serve as more of a wake-up call than a death sentence thanks to how Group F sets up.

France’s next match against Brazil is certainly lose-able and anything short of a win could put them in some peril, but Les Bleues were considered a better team than the Canaries before the tournament and the draw against Jamaica shouldn’t rock that assumption too much.

At worst, France vs. Brazil should be viewed as a coin flip.

Should things break France’s way against Brazil, Les Bleues will be in good shape to not only advance to the Round of 16, but finish atop Group F since they close the round with a match against Panama.

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That is a vital note, since the difference between topping the quartet and finishing second is massive.

The likeliest opponent for the second-place team from Group F in the Round of 16 is Germany, the fourth-favorite to win the World Cup, while the winner of Group F would play one of South Korea, Colombia or Morocco.

There’s no getting around that France has put itself behind the eight ball with its draw against Jamaica, but that result doesn’t mean we should just draw a line through Les Bleues.

Not only is this a team with plenty of star power and experience, but there’s also a clear path for them to turn their tournament around with one result against Brazil this weekend.

Take France at +130 (FanDuel).