Manchester City vs. Inter Milan pick: Champions League odds, prediction

Manchester City is one win away from history.

Not only would a victory against Inter Milan on Saturday give the Cityzens their first Champions League Trophy, but it also would complete the first classic treble (Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League) in English soccer since Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United accomplished the feat back in 1998-99.

When Pep Guardiola took over City back in 2016-17, this was always the goal.

The club’s ownership desperately wanted to win the Champions League and even though five Premier League titles in seven seasons is a generational feat, there is an empty space on the mantle at the Etihad and if it doesn’t get filled, Guardiola’s reign always will have an asterisk.

All of this is to say that the pressure is on Manchester City in Istanbul.

Manchester City vs. Inter Milan pick

Inter Milan is a significant underdog and was not fancied to make a run in this tournament, so it is playing with house money, so to speak.

Milan’s most viable path to success in this match centers around its defense.

The Nerazzurri were the best offensive team in Serie A this season, but it’s one thing to dominate clubs such as Spezia, Monza or Lazio.

It’s a completely different animal when you’re trying to create scoring chances against the best team in the world.

That’s the scary thing about Man City.

Yes, the attack is almost embarrassingly good with Erling Haaland providing a focal point in front with Kevin de Bruyne, Jack Grealish, Ilkay Gundogan and Phil Foden, but it’s been City’s defense that has sent this team into a different stratosphere in 2022-23.

You have to go all the way back to a 4-2 win over Tottenham Hotspur on Jan. 19 to find the last match that the Sky Blues conceded more than one goal.

That is a span of 30 matches across all competitions and it included three contests with Arsenal and then two against Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester United.

City lost two times in that 30-match span, and one of those was a meaningless match with Brentford on the final day of the Premier League season.

When you look at City’s form and statistical portfolio, it almost feels like a lost cause to get involved in this match. Nevertheless, there is a way to play into the game script and find some betting value.

Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps

Milan can do a job defensively — the Nerazzurri finished third in Serie A in non-penalty expected goals conceded and was the best team at preventing big scoring chances — and it’s very likely they will set up in a very defensive posture.

It would be quite bold of Simone Inzaghi to try and get on the front foot against City, knowing his squad’s best opportunity at pulling the upset would be to sit back and try to counterattack.

With Inter looking to turn this game into a slog from the get go and City likely to play a little close to the vest considering the pressure they will be feeling, a look to the under 2.5 goals (+106, FanDuel) seems like a savvy play for Saturday’s Champions League Final.

Manchester City vs. Inter Milan prediction

Under 2.5 goals (+106, FanDuel)