Chelsea vs. Manchester United pick: Premier League odds, predictions

Manchester United needs just one point from its final two Premier League matches to clinch a spot in the 2023-24 Champions League.

After some topsy-turvy seasons under a gaggle of different managers, qualifying for Europe’s biggest competition would be a massive step toward the top of the mountain for the Red Devils.

United will get its first opportunity to punch its ticket to the Champions League against Chelsea on Thursday night. United is a -165 favorite against the Blues. 

Chelsea vs. Manchester United pick

(3 p.m. Eastern)

The most significant question for handicapping this match is whether or not the market is overreacting to the situation.

Manchester United will want to wrap up its business before the final match day of the season on Sunday, and that will be reflected in their price.

Bookmakers know that casual money will default to backing the team with more at stake, and that’s clearly United in this spot.

But overlooking Chelsea just because of the spot seems like a risky move.

Sure, Chelsea has struggled all season and has been a proper mess — the Blues have had three different managers this season and will turn the keys over to Mauricio Pochettino during the offseason — but this is still a talented roster that was considered good enough at the beginning of the season to be one of the favorites to finish in the top four. 

It’s unlikely that Chelsea will have much betting support on Thursday.

Not only are they going up against a team with everything to play for, but the Blues have lost eight of 10 matches since Frank Lampard took over as caretaker manager and they’ve scored just seven goals — three of which came in the same game — in that span. 

The good news is that Chelsea seemed up for the challenge last weekend against Manchester City.

Sure, City were able to win, 1-0, in a match that was rendered moot after Arsenal had handed them the title with their loss to Nottingham Forest 24 hours prior, but it was still encouraging to see the Blues and Cityzens post the same expected goals total at the end of the 90 minutes (1.2). 

It was the fifth time in Chelsea’s last six matches in which they essentially split the xG with their opponents.

Though that may seem like a very low bar for a club of Chelsea’s stature and payroll to clear, it does mark an improvement over what we saw from the Blues during the early parts of April. 

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Perhaps Chelsea are “on the beach” and just looking forward to the offseason, but a trip to Old Trafford is always special and the Blues should be up for the opportunity to play spoiler against one of the biggest clubs in Europe.

The end of the Premier League season always offers bettors ample opportunities to fade the “must-win” narrative and Thursday is no different.

It takes some gusto to back a team in disarray like Chelsea, but the number is likely to get to a spot where it’s hard to make a case to go in any other direction. 

Shrewd bettors can show patience, wait out the market and strike at the high-water mark.

Chelsea vs. Manchester United prediction

Chelsea (+420, FanDuel)