Nottingham Forest vs. Fulham prediction: Premier League pick Saturday

Both Nottingham Forest and Fulham have exceeded expectations in their promotion season. While eighth-place Fulham has been one of the surprises of the competition, Forest has put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone, which is impressive for a team that was one of the favorites to go down at the beginning of the campaign.

Whether either of these clubs can keep up the pace in the Premier League remains to be seen, but the numbers so suggest that one of them should start to trend down as we head toward the business end of the season.

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Nottingham Forest vs. Fulham prediction

(Saturday 10 a.m. ET.)

Steve Cooper’s Nottingham Forest captured the attention of the entire league with its transfer business during the summer. The Tricky Trees brought in over 20 new signings during the window, which was a gigantic bet on the team being able to stay in the Premier League. 

It took some time for Cooper to find the right combination of personnel to suit his style, but things have settled down for Forest over the past few months. After starting the season 2-3-8 (W-D-L), the Trees have found some form during the winter and have lost just once in their last eight league matches. 

Forest’s defense has been the key to their success, as they’ve allowed just seven goals on 10.2 expected goals (xG) in that span.

Those defensive numbers may improve down the stretch, too. Nottingham Forest made one last headline-grabbing transfer in January, signing all-world goalkeeper Keylor Navas on loan from Paris Saint-Germain. 

While Forest tends to play a pretty low-event style, Fulham is the opposite. The Cottagers are last in the Premier League in expected goals allowed, and big scoring chances conceded, but they also rank inside the top-10 in xG created and goals scored. Back and forth they go.

As it stands now, Forest’s form seems to be the more stable of these two teams. That isn’t to say that the Tricky Trees are going to fly up the table, but rather that they should continue to be a team that is able to turn matches into rock fights and bet on themselves to get one more break, goal, or save than their opposition. 

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Fulham, meanwhile, looks destined to tumble. The Cottagers have allowed 30 goals on the season, but their xG data suggests it should be closer to 40. At some point the high-wire act will catch up to Fulham, and this looks like a good spot to do it.

There may be a gap between these two teams in the table, but in reality, they are basically on equal footing. Take the number on Forest to pull the upset at Craven Cottage.

Nottingham Forest vs. Fulham pick

Nottingham Forest +320 (FanDuel)