Netflix adds 1.75M subscribers in Q1 falling below estimates

Netflix on Tuesday added fewer new customers than Wall Street expected in the first quarter and offered a forecast below analyst estimates for the next three months as it delayed a broader launch of its password-sharing crackdown.

Shares of Netflix had fallen as much 7% in after-hours trading before paring loses. The stock was down 1.8% to $327.74. The stock of streaming rivals including Walt Disney and Roku slipped about 1%.

From January through March, Netflix added 1.75 million streaming subscribers, missing analyst estimates of 2.06 million additions.

The company began rolling out its solution for password-sharing in 12 countries in February. Netflix said it shifted a wider launch into the second quarter, which means it will not reap the benefits until later in the year.

“We believe it will result in a better outcome for our members and our business,” the company said. It also said it was “on track to meet our full year 2023 financial objectives.”

For April through June, the company forecast $8.242 billion in revenue and $2.86 in diluted EPS. Wall Street had been projecting $8.476 billion for revenue and $3.05 for diluted EPS.

Netflix serves as a bellwether for the streaming industry, in which growth has slowed as competition has intensified.

A year ago, Netflix lost 200,000 subscribers – its first subscriber decline in more than a decade, sending its stock reeling and resetting Wall Street’s expectations for the sector.

Netflix added nearly 9 million subscribers in 2022, half as many as the 18 million gained in the prior year, with much of that growth coming from Asia, notes research firm MoffettNathanson. The gains it made in Asia and Latin America have impacted the average revenue per user, spurring Netflix to make changes to its business model, the firm said.

The company introduced a lower-priced version of its service with ads in 12 countries in the fourth quarter.

Netflix also officially began rolling out its solution for password-sharing in 12 countries in February.

In its quarterly letter to shareholders, Netflix said it was “pleased” with the launch of its paid sharing effort and planned a broad rollout this quarter, including in the United States.

The company has said 100 million households are sharing passwords, including about 30 million households in the U.S. and Canada.

If Netflix could convert 100% of those password-sharers, that would generate $4.4 billion in incremental revenue, according to MoffettNathanson estimates.

UBS media analyst John Hodulik wrote that the password- sharing crackdown could well fuel Netflix’s nascent advertising business, as it drives these “sharers” to the lower-priced version of the service.